A tenuous argument, but....
I just read Matt's very good blog about Java becoming a Language For Smart People, which sparked a very good comment that Java Is a Language for the Masses. It got Malcolm Edgar and I thinking that for something to be popular, and hence successful, it must be simple. For example, the must popular blog I have seen is The dullest blog in the world.
The corollary of all this is, smart people like complex things which are unpopular and hence, unsuccessful.